The new dark horse of the Euros! Wales has replaced Turkey in this position, does it have a chance for a big success?

Wales had a dream Euro five years ago. Defending the semi-final this year was not expected, few people believed in progressing from the group at all. Now Bale and co. have scored an important scalp of Turkey and we will see them in the playoffs 99% of the time.

Before the championship, many experts and fans were sticking the name tag of the black horse of the tournament on the forehead of the Middle Eastern footballers. And no wonder, because before the tournament the Turks had a six-match unbeaten run, including a three-point gain at the expense of the favoured Netherlands.

Yet Senöl Gunes was not about to rest on his laurels. He and his charges started their preparations for the tournament first of all. However, it did not bear fruit.

Turkey still hasn’t scored its first goal of the tournament and after losses to Italy and Wales it finds itself at the bottom of Group A. The role of black horse has been stolen from them by another team, which I believe is Wales.

Wales the dark horse of the tournament?

And it has the typical makings of it. Young attacking stars (D. James, H. Wilson), a natural goalscorer (K. Moore), a star and leader in one (G. Bale) and last but not least a great goalkeeper (D. Ward).

They also showed typical Wales team spirit in the championship and in a tournament where only one mutual measurement decides being or not being Wales can beat almost anyone.

Moreover, their progress from the group is almost certain after their victory over Turkey. The third-placed Switzerland would have to beat Turkey in the last round of the group stage by a margin that would reduce the score difference, which is currently 5 goals between Turkey and Switzerland, as much as possible.

Wales, however, have a game against a so far flawless Italy, which will probably be the best indication of where Robert Page’s charges stand. Should the Dragons manage to fight for an acceptable result, it could kick-start them to a successful championship.

It was a similar story five years ago when Wales only lost 2-1 to England after a less than convincing game against the Slovaks, which spurred them on to beat Russia by three goals and then go through to the semi-finals.

The fate of the eventual promotion

The Welsh are currently basking in second place in Group A and would like to keep it until the end of the group stage. This would mean a somewhat favourable draw for them, as they would also be facing the second team from Group B.

This is likely to be decided in the last round, as only the three-point team is likely to advance due to Belgium’s dominance.

Russia are currently the best placed to advance, as they will only need a draw against Denmark in their last match. However, if Denmark surprise Belgium, the situation in the group could be completely different.

On the condition of progression from the eighth round, Wales would meet the winner of the duel between the king of Group C – probably the Netherlands – and one of the 3rd teams in their groups.

So the road to defending semi-final participation will certainly be a very thorny one, but it is certainly not unrealistic, as both the Netherlands and Russia, Wales’ most likely opponents, are not looking the most convincing so far.

Sources used: Transfermarkt, UEFA