Defending champion Canada is not the biggest favourite for the junior championship. Experts favour USA with home Swedes

The traditional World Junior Hockey Championships in Sweden are about to start. The defending world champion is the team from Canada, but according to experts and betting experts, the Canadian junior team is ranked third, behind the favoured USA and the home Swedes!

I know, many of you will argue that the system of the tournament, which after participating in five-man groups, will start with playoff matches. And there, predicting the results is totally erratic. So the world champions could be Finns or Slovaks! Still, in the clash of overseas giants, the US selection is predicted to be more successful. Canada defends the first place, will attack the golden hat-trick and also the fifth World Junior Championship final in a row. Will they be able to do just that in the face of strong competition from the U.S. hockey team and the home Swedes? In the group, the Canadians have the home Swedes (tournament co-favorites), Finns, Germans and Latvians.

It is generally said before the start of the championship that Canada’s nomination doesn’t feel as strong as in past years. And some overseas critics are even worried about the team’s competitiveness, predicting a possible tough collision with reality for the “Maple Leafs” as early as the quarterfinal playoffs.

I disagree, the quality of the players is still great and despite less experience and big stars, they can form a compact team that will have a strong motivation to prove itself on the international stage. There will be a number of players in the Canadian jersey who have the potential to soon be running around the NHL rinks. But compared to last year, not only the much talked about Bedard will be missing, but also other favorites to start in the NHL like Wright, Fantilli or Stankoven.

The only one on the current Canada U20 roster is last year’s gold medalist Owen Beck. Coach Letang is aware of the situation, which is why he has left a roster spot open that he would like to fill with one of the more seasoned players who have had a taste of the NHL. The current Canada coach has been with the Sarnia Sting of the OHL this season and has an excellent overview of Canadian juniors.

He selects youngsters primarily based on their current form. That’s also why he left some hockey players at home who were 100% counted on for the championship a few months ago, mainly because of the “big name”. What was definitely not counted on in the Canadian junior team is the composition of the current goaltending trio. Neither Mathis Rousseau nor Samuel St-Hilaire had been drafted by any NHL club in the previous two drafts, nor did they have any experience with the national team. But watch out! Rousseau has improved every year in Halifax in the Quebec league and is already putting up excellent goaltending numbers this year. His teammate St-Hilaire is above ninety percent shot success rate in the same competition. Both goalies had success during the final camp and a fourth goalie, Divicentis, was sent home.

Scott Ratzlaff was in a different position before camp. He had an excellent last season in the WHL and was subsequently drafted by Buffalo. He made his debut in a Canada U18 jersey at the Hlinka-Gretzky Cup this summer and helped the team win the tournament. He is quite likely to be counted on as the first choice in goal for key games. The masked men are under a lot of scrutiny in Canada, as some of the hockey community there believes that young Canadian goaltenders are not making as much of an impact in the NHL as they should in the cradle of hockey.

On defense, Oliver Bonk’s name will be of particular interest to fans. The son of former Czech national player and 1996 World Champion from Vienna Radek Bonk, who was born in Ottawa, Canada, where his father worked. He has been playing in the OHL for the London Knights for several seasons. He boasts a record of more than a point per game. He was drafted by Philadelphia in the first round.

Tanner Molendyk is putting up more than a point a game. Even better is Denton Mateychuk, who is one of the most productive defensemen in this league overall. Letang will be looking to take advantage of their speed. The Anaheim Ducks provided a big boost to the junior roster when they let Tristan Luneau go to the World Junior Championships. Luneau is already jumping in for the Mighty Ducks first team and is also gaining adult hockey experience on the AHL farm.

He should be a natural leader amongst his peers, greatly supporting the offense as a right-handed forward with a good shot. Conversely, Owen Pickering, for example, doesn’t fit on the roster among the defensemen. Pickering was drafted by Pittsburgh last year in the first round just outside the elite 20. But now he’s in poor form. Unlike his second cousin, Denton Mateychuk, he won’t make the tournament.

The most watched Canadian forward and probably the most watched hockey player overall will be Macklin Celebrini. The expected number one overall pick in the next draft is making a strong push in the NCAA college ranks and has had a very successful “World Eighteen Championship” in points. Although he has matured considerably and has the pounds to play senior hockey, he is still the Benjamite on the team, the question is whether he can handle all the pressure and attention.

Along with him, offensive players from the first round of this year’s draft like Brayden Yager, Matthew Wood and Gordon Geekie, who has been picking up point after point in this year’s WHL, form the core of the team. Matthew Savoie, for example, has also jumped into adult hockey and should bring the necessary experience.

Coach Letang is banking on keeping one open roster spot. According to the latest reports, that will be filled by Matthew Poitras from Boston. It would be a surprise to many! Although he was speculated as a possible reinforcement for the Canadian junior team, but considering how he established himself in the first team of the Bruins, probably few people expected the management of the Boston Bears to let him go to the junior championship in Sweden.

Poitras was selected by the Bruins in the second round of the draft last year. After an outstanding year in the OHL, he got his chance in preseason camp. He grabbed it by the scruff of the neck, fit in well with the team, and didn’t return to the minors. He has become a stable member of the Boston Bruins NHL team. Players in his situation are often told that they don’t want to go to tournaments like the junior championship for two reasons. Firstly, they need to be confronted with adult hockey and develop there. And secondly, if they leave the NHL first team for three weeks, they risk losing their hard-earned status and someone else will take their place.

The competition in the overseas NHL is simply enormous. For example, one of the most productive players in the WHL, Andrew Cristall, was left off the Canadian roster, and he had a great playoff run at the “World Eighteen Championship” in April. Jagger Firkus also missed out on Canada’s U20 World Championship nomination. A quality right-handed defenseman who is also on a rampage in the WHL, where he is among the top four scorers in Canadian scoring.

Source: IIHF