What to bet on in the Euro 2020 semi-final duel: Italy vs. Spain?

At Euro 2016, the Italians met Spain in the eighth finals and it was they who were delighted to advance. This time, both teams have advanced to the semi-finals, where they will face England or Denmark in the final.

The Italians are without any doubt the biggest favourites for the overall championship. The words of Mr. Ladislav Vízek, who predicted them to be the winners, are coming true.

The Italians have been playing with absolute sovereignty for a long time. The Austrians managed to surprise them a little bit, but in the overtime the players of coach Roberto Mancini already beat them. The first big test with Belgium was also excellent and now they will face a relatively unpopular opponent.

But with four draws (after 90 minutes) and one win over Slovakia, the Spaniards have made it to the semi-finals and dominate many statistics at Euro 2020.

On average, Spain keep the ball on their kicks 67.5% of the time. Germany boasts the second highest figure at 58.8%, followed by Italy at 56.3%.

It will also be a clash of the two most frequent shooting teams, with Italy having the highest number of shots per game – 20.2, followed by Spain 19.8 and Denmark 17.2.

Spain, on the other hand, reigns supreme in passing accuracy, with 89.8% of passes finding their mark. The Italians round out the top 5 with 87.8%. Only Portugal, Germany and France are ahead of them, teams that are out of the tournament.

Interestingly enough, in terms of player rankings, only Marco Verratti can be found in the tournament line-up so far according to Whoscored. No other Italian and no other Spaniard has managed to occupy the best player position so far, where the pair of Patrick Schick and Vladimir Coufal have broken through.

On the other hand, it’s not surprising and it says quite a lot! For example, that both teams put teamwork first and foremost. Both Italians and Spaniards present their own style at the European Championship and it works well.

Moreover, the two teams have clashed very often in recent years and it has to be said that it has usually been Spain that has come out on top in the end. However, it has rarely been a landslide win, usually the match is decided by one goal or the two opponents part amicably.

The Italians will no doubt not be comfortable with Spain’s dominance on the ball, which is something to be reckoned with. Coach Luis Enrique’s players are unlikely to succeed with centred balls. The Chiellini-Bonucci pairing has been very dominant in the tournament.

However, you can’t stop age and the Spaniards will probably try to mainly make forays behind the defence. However, Juventus’ experienced runners should keep an eye on this as well through positional play and cooperation with their teammates.

Therefore, Spain’s assertion in normal time is not very likely and the betting is accordingly. For example, such a tip on Under 2.5 is offered at odds of 1.61.

The match can also be expected to be very cautious, at least in the first half. A bet on more goals being scored in the second half is also not out of place.

It will certainly be very interesting to see how the Italians deal with the Spanish dominance on the ball, unless they plan to steal it from them in their favour. Conversely, it will be important to see if Morata and co. can find a loophole in their opponents’ impenetrable defence.

If neither manages to do anything, a goalless draw and subsequent penalties are also a very likely scenario. After all, 4 out of 5 Spanish games have ended that way.