The supercomputer is back in power! Still not counting on the Czech Republic

The analytics company Stats Perform and its subsidiary website The Analyst bring you the latest mathematical models with probabilities on the future of the European Championship! At the start of the Euros, the supercomputer gave the Czech Republic a 0.2% chance of winning. What do the calculations look like now that we’re heading into the quarter-finals?

Before the tournament we were one of the biggest underdogs according to the supercomputer. Stats Perform and its tool ranked us among the minnows! Only a few teams looked worse. Let’s recap the pre-tournament prediction.

France (20.5%) was the biggest favorite to win the tournament, but they’re already out of the tournament with the Swiss. Also out of the running are the Portuguese (7.6%) or the Dutch (5.9%).

It goes to show that even the precise data analytics that moves the world still cannot successfully predict a game as complex as football. In this sport, the rule “What is written is given” still does not apply

The supercomputer still doesn’t count the Czech Republic!

Even after we advanced from a difficult group and knocked out the strong Netherlands, the supercomputer is still against us. What are our chances of winning the whole tournament? Currently 2.6%, an increase of only 2.4% since the start of the tournament.

Currently only Ukraine has a smaller chance, with a 1.2% chance of winning the overall title. And our chances against Denmark?

It is much higher! But we’re definitely not going into the game as favourites. The probability of reaching the quarter-finals is calculated at 46.2%. The chance of reaching the final is slightly above 10%! Specifically, it is 12.3%.

So who is currently favoured by the Stats Perform instrument to win the Euro overall? Spain has the best chance with 24.1%, Belgium has the second best chance with 23.2%, and Italy is third with 15.4%.

Sources: OptaJoe, The Analyst