The Golf Masters is knocking on the door! Who will conquer the most famous tournament in 2022?

One year has come and gone, and here we have the biggest golf event in the world again. This Thursday, April 7, 2022, the PGA Tour’s traditional golf tournament, The Masters, kicks off. It’s time to take a look at the biggest favourites, eager to don the green jacket on Sunday night after hitting the ball for the last time.

Determining a true favorite in a golf tournament is virtually impossible. Few players manage to win even two tournaments in a row, for timing form for the top events, golf is one of the most demanding sports in the world.

Yet there are various models and simulations available today that can at least partially indicate who might be in the best shape to win a given tournament. Probably the most accurate model is shaped by a system called Sportsline from 2020.

In short, a gigantic pile of data is entered into a computer, which then runs a simulation of the expected outcome. For the most accurate final model, up to 10,000 simulations are made. The same way the simulations for the upcoming Masters were created. In the following we will see what predictions this simulation showed.

MATSUYAMA WILL DEFEND

The defending champion is Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama, who won last year at the private Augusta National Golf Club with a score of -10, just one shot ahead of American Will Zalatoris. Both will, of course, be on the Georgia State green this year.

Matsuyama will attempt to become the first golfer since 2002 to win his second consecutive Maters tournament. The last time Tiger Woods accomplished that feat.

It is still unclear if the five-time Masters winner will appear in the tournament. Speculation about his start was fueled by ESPN, which said Woods was seen on Tuesday at Augusta National in a practice round with his son Charlie and Justin Thomas. If Woods does indeed appear at the Masters, his odds of winning are at 60-1.

Unlike Tiger Woods, it’s clear that another great legend and Hall of Fame member Phil Mickelson will not appear on the Augusta course.

Twenty-seven-year-old Jon Rahm of Spain is considered the outright favourite according to the Sportsline model, with a 10-1 chance of triumph according to the computer simulation. This result is mostly helped by the fact that he has finished in the top 10 in the last four tournaments at Augusta National. Such balanced performances over such a wide time frame in one tournament are very rare.

Other models and world betting companies also trust the Spanish golfer. Jordan Spieth (12-1), Collin Morikawa (12-1), Justin Thomas (12-1), Rory McIlroy (14-1) and Dustin Johnson (14-1) also have high chances to triumph, according to Caesars Sportsbook.

FALL vs. Flip

For Irish player McIlroy, however, the Sportsline simulation came up with a surprising result. According to it, the thirty-two-year-old and world number nine will flop in Augusta and will not even finish in the top ten. The fact is that McIlroy has never mastered the weight of the moment at the Masters, although he went into the final round in 2014 ranked first, for example, he ended up finishing only tied eighth.

On the other hand, the biggest surprise may be twenty-five-year-old San Francisco native Will Zalatoris. He already finished second last year behind Matsuyama. His chances of triumph are 35-1 according to the computer simulation.

Other frequently mentioned favourites include Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Scottie Scheffler and Tokyo Olympic champion Xander Schauffele.

But who will eventually conquer the 86th edition of golf’s most famous tournament will have to wait a few days to find out. But all the clues point to a very interesting spectacle. If you like golf just a little bit, be sure to take advantage of the live coverage on CT Sport.

Source: PGA Tour, The Masters