Tangled qualification maths: the Czech Republic “wants” to lose to England, but a high defeat threatens 3rd place

The Czech national team entered the tournament successfully and after defeating Scotland and drawing with Croatia, they are celebrating at the top of the group. However, this was not the plan as after England’s faltering, top spot is indeed realistic. The problem is that nobody wants it.

On the face of it, we are in a dream position. After two rounds, we are 99% certain of promotion and we are top of Group D. However, even our successful campaign may cause us problems as we really don’t want to finish in first place.

It would be a cruel scenario if we were to say goodbye to the European Championship at the expense of a successful group in the eighth round due to a meaningless draw. In the event of a draw with England, we would be facing one team from the group of death, i.e. Portugal, France, Germany and still Hungary.

Promotion maths

After two games, the Czech national team is in first place with four points. The group was particularly muddled by the collapse of England, who only survived a goalless draw with Scotland in their second game to level the points score with the Czech Republic.

Not the goal difference, however, which ours are only one goal higher, but which could be decisive in the final. It puts Jaroslav Šilhavy’s selection in an otherwise positive situation, as even a draw against the much-criticised Albion would be enough to top the group.

However, difficulties arise when you focus on the eighth-final draw. It has virtually thrown our group position completely out of whack, as even promotion from third place can be more advantageous than winning the group.

In that case, the aforementioned draw of the second team from the group of death would come. The biggest reward is second place. The footballers would fight their opponents from the several times weaker Group E.

Specifically, the team from the second place, which is currently dominated by Slovakia, even after the loss to the Swedes. However, we can expect that the footballers from the Iberian Peninsula will leapfrog them in the last round after a direct duel.

Then it would depend mainly on the score. Not if Sweden beats the Poles. That would mean Spain would finish second. In the event of a draw, then it would be the score that would matter. But if Poland could rally and beat the favoured northerners, they would move up from second place.

Now back to our group. In the last round, the Czech Republic will play England and Croatia will play Scotland. Both Scotland and Croatia are still in contention for promotion from second place. But Scotland can only replace England, Croatia can replace our selection.

The best scenario for Šilhavy’s team is unfortunately a loss against England and a win for Scotland or a draw in the simultaneous match. That would put England in first place, but also towards an extremely difficult eighth-final opponent.

However, not everything may turn out so rosy. In the event of an England defeat and a Croatia win, we would have to rely on the scoreline. We are currently three goals better than that, but with a defeat and a Croatia win, it is highly likely that the score would at least equalise.

In that case the total number of goals scored would be the deciding factor, so if we managed to score a goal against England and lose by a one goal difference, the Croatians would have to score at least three goals in a win. At zero behind they would progress, at a final score of 1:3, another criterion would have to decide.

This is the number of wins in the group, which would be equal again and they would move on. Then the discipline would be decided, i.e. the number of yellow cards. For every red card in the tournament 3 points would be added, for every yellow 1 point and for every match in which a team received 2 or more yellow cards 3 points.

The Czech Republic has so far collected 5 points for the three yellow cards in the match against Croatia and Zlatko Dalic’s team has 6 points for the single yellow card in Friday’s match and the three cards in the match against England.

The Czech Republic’s promotion from 1st or 2nd place is really close, and the promotion from second place seems more realistic now. While neither team will go into the game wanting to lose it, the greater appetite for a result will definitely be on the side of the much-criticised English.

Sources used: UEFA Euro