Statistics never lie? What is the probability of us getting out of the group?

Today’s football is no longer just coach, masseur and players. Another big industry is forming around the “round nonsense” and that is data analytics. How do statisticians and analysts see us progressing or not progressing from the Euro 2020 group stage after our opening win over Scotland?

According to the analysts, a 2-0 win over home side Scotland was less likely than an eventual Scottish victory! So yes, statistics and numbers offer us some assumptions based on data, but there are so many variables in football that even the best computers cannot 100% predict future events.

Before the Scotland game, a home win was predicted at 38.8%, a draw was predicted at 29.1% and the Czech Republic was expected to win “only” at 32.1%. In the end we won by two goals and with a clean sheet, which makes our victory even more valuable!

How does the table of probable qualifiers look after the opening round of Group D? Our national team currently has an almost 90% chance of qualifying! But as we know from the introduction, it means almost nothing, the truth is on the pitch.

England have an even higher chance of progressing, and according to the analysts, they have almost 100% chance of progressing! On the other hand, Scotland’s chances are really slim after their opening loss.

Sources: The Analyst, Kevin Chroust