Premier League title maths: Arsenal have the toughest lot, Manchester City can close seasons

Ten rounds to go and the top three Premier League teams are separated by a single point. Fans of English football could not have asked for a more even finish to the season, with Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City looking strong and evenly matched this season.

Arsenal and Liverpool on 64 points, Manchester City a single point behind. After the Reds’ 1-1 draw with the Citizens on Sunday, the Premier League lead has become even more even, with Arsenal currently leading thanks to the scoreline they have earned from the start of the 2024 calendar year.

In the event of a tie, goal difference is the deciding factor in England. Arsenal currently have +46, while second-placed Liverpool are on +39. Unusually behind is Manchester City, with Erling Haaland on top, the difference is “only” +35.

Liverpool still in the best position in the Premier League?

The Gunners are currently leading by a score, but they are facing Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in the first round after the national break. Thus, in case of a home defeat, Liverpool can quickly get back to the first place.

Still, the Reds can’t wish for an outright City win. Pep Guardiola’s team is famous for being able to win round after round in a difficult ending. If they beat Arsenal, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they win the other nine games as well. That’s hard to imagine with Liverpool.

The results against Aston Villa and Tottenham will decide

In terms of the difficulty of the draw, Arsenal probably have the toughest job ahead of them, having Tottenham, both Manchesters, Brighton and a troublesome Wolverhampton away. Then at home in the derby Chelsea and also Aston Villa. In addition, the Gunners kick off in the Champions League.

All three teams play Tottenham, specifically they play Tottenham in two weeks in April/May. Of the tougher teams, all will also challenge Aston Villa, with only Liverpool going out, even in the 37th round.

It is at Villa Park that the title fight may be broken. Either way it ends, it should be a fight into the final rounds.

Source: Premier League