NHL in Atlanta for the third time: reality or utopia? And why might things be different now?

The hockey map of the world’s most famous league could soon change again. After Tempe residents rejected proposals to build a new arena for Arizona, the Coyotes’ days in the NHL seem numbered. So logically, they’re wondering where the competition could move. Atlanta is also reportedly in play, where the NHL would be heading for the third time in its history.

Although no one has officially confirmed Arizona’s move, there seems to be very little reason for events to move in any other direction. A series of failed moves has doomed the Coyotes to the university’s 5,000-capacity Mullett Arena.

In addition, after a vote of the residents, probably one of the last options has already been dropped, that Arizona should move to a new multi-purpose large arena that would attract thousands of happy hockey-goers. That’s why there is so much talk of moving.

Atlanta, for the third time and better?

Just as NHL commissioner Gary Bettman is having a hard time coming to terms with the fact that the Arizona-area market no longer has a bright future, NHL executives are still eyeing Atlanta. The club abandoned the prestigious destination in 2011 when the organization moved to Winnipeg, Canada.

Previously, the Atlanta Flames had been in the NHL from 1972-1980. The club then moved to Calgary, where it still operates today. So that’s a total of two failed attempts to make Atlanta a strong and stable brand in the NHL. Neither of them worked out. So the question is, why might it work this time?

Back in March, according to The Athletic, there were whispers in Georgia that a third Atlanta sequel in the NHL wasn’t a matter of if, but when. Former Thrashers captain Ray Ferraro says that although Atlanta hasn’t had a chance to stay in the world’s most famous league in the past, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have a chance in the future.

The Atlanta Thrashers haven’t won a single playoff game in their 11-year history. Ferraro and others say three major factors were behind the failure – bad players, bad ownership and a poorly located arena where fans traveled at least 45 minutes to see hockey.

If these problems were resolved, the third chapter of this Atlanta hockey story could be a very different one.

“Thedemographics of each market have changed over time. So the fact that they’ve tried twice and failed wouldn’t necessarily preclude a third time, ” NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly told The Athletic.

Better conditions for building teams

If an organization wants to succeed, it must have a competitive team to do so. That’s exactly the kind of thing that has tied the hands of new teams in the league in the past. In the case of Vegas and Seattle, however, the situation has been relatively friendlier. These are expansion draft rules that have changed over the years.

Specifically, in 1999, 26 teams could protect either 15 players (five defensemen, nine forwards, one goalie) or 11 players (three defensemen, seven forwards, two goalies). But in the case of Vegas and Seattle, those numbers have already dwindled to either 11 players (seven forwards, three defensemen, one goalie) or nine players (one goalie, eight skaters regardless of position).

These more moderate rules created the conditions for the incoming organization to be able to assemble a much more competitive roster right out of the gate. The Vegas Golden Knight made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals in their inaugural year. The Seattle Kraken aren’t doing badly on the map of the most prestigious hockey league in the world either.

So the current rules could be an advantage. However, there is a major difference between a new team entering the NHL and an organization moving from one city to another. That means that for Atlanta to be eligible for the Expansion Draft, it would have to be formed as a new organization.

If the Coyotes organization moved to Atlanta, they would move with their current contracts in place.

Arena location as a key factor for business

Many of the failed organizations in NHL history share essentially the same basic factors. One of them is arena location. But it’s not just a matter of making the arena remotely accessible. It’s also about how competitive the other sports (primarily NFL, MBL) are in the city.

Ray Ferraro was one of the first Thrashers players and one of the first to recognize the difficulty of getting into the arena. The practice arena was close by, but players already had to travel an hour to games.

It was much more of a problem for the fans who were stuck in traffic on their way to and from the hockey game. The stench from the travel time gradually discouraged them from attending hockey games more and more, as did the team’s results.

In the Thrashers’ inaugural season, an average of more than 17,200 fans attended hockey games (11th in the league). Gradually, that number dropped year-over-year to approximately 13,400 in the 2002-03 season. Attendance has never been able to rise to its original levels thereafter.

Nowadays, everyone is in the clear. Even depending on population growth and hockey presence, any new NHL team would have to be located in the northern suburbs. Any other choice would be a failure. There simply is no one interested in fighting over transportation infrastructure in the long term.

A new team rather than moving out of Arizona

The solution could be a project known as The Gathering at South Forsyth, six miles north of the Forsyth County Mall. A $2 billion world-class entertainment center for North Georgia could be built there. The complex would include high-end retail stores, a business hotel, a community center, diverse housing options, but most importantly, an arena designed to host a variety of high-end events.

According to officials, the arena will be 750,000 square feet and have a seating capacity of approximately 18,000. This would be a move that would send Atlanta into a situation where the NHL will once again be the talk of the town in this part of America. It would also be hard for NHL executives to overlook such an opportunity, as it would be a large commercial market with lots of potential customers.

The fact is, however, that at this point it is very much a prospect for the future. Currently, the situation in Atlanta is not such that a club from Arizona could move there within a year or two.

But besides all that, money will of course play a role. The entry fee is skyrocketing every year, as is the value of each organization. In 2016, Vegas paid $500 million to the league. Five years later, when Seattle knocked on the NHL gates, the entry fee was already $650 million.

Analysts agree that the next figure could climb to as much as one billion. And if there’s anyone who will pay that kind of money, the club’s future must be pretty damn certain.

Source: NHL, The Athletic