Germany favourite for the tournament? There are several reasons why this is not the case

Probably all football enthusiasts know the famous definition of the English sports editor Gary Lineker, who said that football is a game played by twenty-two people and always won by the Germans. But Germany are not among the biggest favourites in the tournament this year, with many experts, including bookmakers, not even placing them in the top 3

Germany out of form

Let’s take a look at the results of the matches Germany have played recently.

Since the beginning of 2020, they have a 6-5-2 match record, which is definitely not a satisfactory record for a regular favourite in all major tournaments. By comparison, Belgium, for example, has a record of 10-3-1 since the start of 2020, Italy 11-3-0, England 11-1-2, France 10-2-1, Spain 6-6-0 and Portugal 8-4-1.

The Danes, for example, are in better shape than the aforementioned Germans, with a 9-2-2 record. These include a win and a draw with England, a 4-0 win over Austria and a 1-1 draw with the Germans.

A 6-0 loss to Spain

In Germany’s last thirteen matches we would then find very disappointing results:: Germany – Switzerland 3::3 and 1::1, Germany – Turkey 3::3, or the aforementioned draw with Denmark 1::1. There are also not very convincing wins against Romania (0::1), Ukraine (1::2) or Czech Republic (1::0).

But there are also outright disgraces. The home defeat against North Macedonia 1: 2 or the defeat against once arch enemy Spain 6: 0 stuck like a dagger in the hearts of German fans. In that Nations League match eight months ago, they scored three goals in each half. Manchester City’s Ferran Torres scored a hat-trick.

Last place at the World Cup

And let’s recall the results from the last big football tournament, namely the 2018 World Cup, which really didn’t go well for the Germans. The Germans defended their title from 2014 here, but unfortunately there can be no question of defending it. In fact, the Germans failed to advance even from the group.

At first glance, it wasn’t even a difficult group – they had Sweden, Mexico and South Korea in Group F. Of these three teams, however, they could only beat the Swedes 2:1 and even in this case we cannot talk about something sovereign. Germany was 0:1 down after the first half and only managed to turn the game around in the 95th minute after a goal by Toni Kroos.

At the start of the championship, the Germans lost 0:1 to Mexico and even lost 0:2 to South Korea in their last match.

And those were the only matches Germany played at this championship. Despite these two defeats, they did not fight their way out of the group, in which they finished in last place.

Coach Joachim Löw is leaving

That things are not going as expected in the Die Mannschaft cabinet is evidenced by the fact that Joachim Löw has announced his retirement as coach of the team after this year’s championship. He will leave his post after 15 years and will be replaced by Hansi Flick, who has won everything there is to win with Bayern.

Group of Death

Another big factor is the Group F itself, where Germany is this year. Not only is it the same name of the group they had at the last ill-fated World Cup, but it is also, quite without exaggeration, the group of death at this year’s Euros.

In addition to Germany, it includes the finalists from the last Euro, Portugal and France, who are joined by the obvious outsider, Hungary. However, Hungary is not a football prodigy either, it managed to dominate its group five years ago, for example, drawing 3-3 with the champions Portugal.

If Germany manages to advance out of this group at all, we can certainly expect some form of fatigue. After all, it will have some really tough matches ahead of it, which we could expect in the knockout battles rather than in the main group.

Scenarios for a possible German progression

Probable eighth-finals: Wales, England, Netherlands

Advancing from first place:: In this scenario, the Germans would face the third team from one of Groups A, B or C. This is hard to predict, however, so far Wales, Denmark and Ukraine are in these positions. And it is with the last two teams that Germany does not have a good record.

Advancing from second place: Here they would meet the winner of Group D, the group that includes the Czech Republic. The biggest favourite here is England, who would be another incredibly tough test for the Germans after France and Portugal.

Advancing from third place:: Germany would then face the winner of Group C in the eighth round, which would most likely be the Dutch. Even that would certainly not be a pleasant experience right in the championship’s eighth round. In this case, the team’s points and score would also be decisive, because the teams that finish third in the groups will be remotely third in the table. This table is already purely comparative and the teams do not face each other directly.

Five years ago, for example, the three points gained by Turkey and Albania were not enough to qualify for the eighth round.

The biggest favourites are France, England and Belgium

The odds for Germany to win are around 1:9. The bookmakers then give four teams – France, England, Belgium and Italy (in ascending order from biggest to smallest favourite) the best chances. The defending champion from the last Euro, Portugal, has identical odds of 1::9.

An interesting comparison comes from the bookmaker Fortuna, which has listed the odds for the Czech Republic to reach the semi-finals of the Euros. The Czechs currently have a lower odds of 1::8.5 to reach the top four of the tournament.

Anything can happen

But let’s face it, the ball is round and anything can happen, as has been proven many times. Despite all the negatives on the German side, it could happen that they win and no one will be able to say a word. After all, they weren’t among the biggest favourites at the 2014 World Cup, from which they emerged as winners and the whole world bowed down to them. Including their home country, Brazil, who were blown away 7-1.

Sources: Transfermarkt