EURO 2021 analysis: Italy no longer the favourite, medal would be a surprise

Italy will not be one of the biggest favourites at this year’s European Championships, as is usual, but it is certainly not without a chance of a medal. What does its squad look like and where can we find weaknesses?

Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Donnarumma (AC Milan), Alex Meret (Napoli), Salvatore Sirigu (Torino)

Between the three poles, the situation is clear. Gianluigi Donnarumma is a reliable number one and the coach has no reason to try anyone else here. Alex Meret and Salvatore Sirigu will be in charge of the number two and three positions.

Defenders: Francesco Acerbi (Lazio Roma), Alessandro Bastoni (Inter Milan), Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus), Giorgio Chiellini (Juventus), Giovanni Di Lorenzo (Napoli), Emerson Palmieri (Chelsea), Alessandro Florenzi (PSG), Gianluca Mancini (AS Roma), Leonardo Spinazzola (AS Roma), Rafael Toloi (Atalanta)

The Italians mostly play a 4-3-3 system, only occasionally switching to a three-stopper formation.

The defence has long been the Italians’ weapon of choice, as they can choose from Alessandro Bastoni, Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Bonucci, Federico Acerbi at the stopper position. Who will be preferred may also be decided by the friendly against the Czech Republic.

The fullbacks are a big weakness of the team, on the left a pair of average players Leandro Spinazzola, Emerson, on the right Giovanni di Lorenzo is the first choice, behind him Alessandro Florenzi.

Precisely because of the poor quality at the edges of the defence, a three-man system would make sense. In this case, Federico Bernardeschi, who has already played a few games here, could start at right wing-back.

Midfielders: Nicolò Barella (Inter Milan), Bryan Cristante (AS Roma), Jorginho (Chelsea), Manuel Locatelli (Sassuolo), Lorenzo Pellegrini (AS Roma), Matteo Pessina (Atalanta), Stefano Sensi (Inter Milan), Marco Verratti (PSG)

In the midfield, we find several names that could be the best in the world in a few years. Nicolo Barella cannot be missing in the starting eleven after an excellent season in the Inter Milan jersey.

Who’s next to him? Probably the not very well known but extremely talented Manuel Locatelli from Sampdoria Genoa. The third place will be a battle, probably between Jorginho and Marco Verratti.

Strikers: Andrea Belotti (Torino), Domenico Berardi (Sassuolo), Federico Bernardeschi (Juventus), Federico Chiesa (Juventus), Ciro Immobile (Lazio Rome), Lorenzo Insigne (Naples), Matteo Politano (Naples)

Lorenzo Insigne must not be missing from the Squadra Azzurra’s starting line-up on the left side of the attack. The small, agile speedster from Naples is a long-time mainstay of the national team and will be a regular at this championship.

Andrea Belotti and Ciro Immobile regularly rotate at the top of the attack. Both are among Serie A’s top scorers year after year, both are classic strikers in the penalty area, both get roughly equal playing time.

The Italians also double up on the right wing. Federico Chiesa and Domenico Berardi are both mature and quality wingers, with the Juventus speedster a slightly bigger candidate for the starting line-up after a successful season.

Key success factors: The performances of the outside backs and the experience of the long-time mainstays

Italy’s squad is nowhere near as strong as it was three or ten years ago, so experienced players who have experienced a season full of victories will play an important role. Both on and off the pitch.

Bonucci and Chiellini have always been able to get their team going, while the offensive players should be helped by Insigne, who experienced both the iconic penalty shootout with the Germans five years ago and the shocking end in the 2014 World Cup group stage.

As I mentioned before, the quality of Italy’s outside backs is definitely not at the level we are used to. So if Roberto Mancini’s charges want to reach at least the semi-finals, they will need to perform above standard.

Quarterfinals

Source: Transfermarkt