David Dvorak vs. Matheus Nicolau: Preview and betting tips

David Dvorak has his fourth fight in the UFC, a win could put him near the top five of the rankings. But he faces the toughest opponent of his career. What to expect from the fight and what to bet on?

The goal is clear, but there’s still a long way to go. David Dvorak can get closer on Saturday when he meets the number seven in his weight division, Matheus Nicolau.

Dvorak’s qualities are also counted on by the UFC itself, they have labeled him as a black horse of the flyweight division, he has won all three of his fights so far, now he would like to score his fourth win in the organization. He would like to fight for the title next year.

Nicolau, however, will be the toughest opponent he has ever faced, even though his win streak is nowhere near the one Dvorak boasts. The Czech fighter hasn’t lost in 10 years and has won 16 fights in a row.

While Dvorak boasts a record of 20:3, Nicolau is no worse off, having won 17 fights, lost 2 and drawn 1.

Nicolau has won 8 fights on points, ended 5 fights by submission, and ended 4 fights by KO/TKO. Dvorak is more successful in ending fights early, he won only 4 times on points, 8 times he ended the fight both by submission and KO/TKO.

As for losses, Dvorak lost 2 times on points and once by TKO. Nicolau has been knocked out twice, most recently in 2018.

What to expect from the fight? Nicolau has a good stance, great defense against takedowns and in his last fight he was able to control orthodox wrestler Tim Elliot on the ground. He tends to be at his weakest in the early rounds when he’s loading up his opponent. His advantage will be that he has faced tougher opponents than Dvorak.

Dvorak has virtually no significant weaknesses, he’s a complete fighter. As his record suggests, he is capable of ending a fight by both submission and knockout. He has a high percentage of early finishes for his weight class.

We can expect a close fight that will be decided by the details. However, Dvorak is really hungry, he wants to create the fight and he wants to go for the finish. In addition, Nicolau has won his last two fights on points only narrowly. Therefore, the Czech fighter will be a slight favorite, but the bet on him to win will be worthwhile.

It cannot be ruled out that the fight will end on points. This is the most likely scenario.