Can anyone beat Verstappen? Will Ferrari do well at home or what can we expect from the Italian GP?

Formula 1 is about to hold its 16th race of the season, the iconic Italian Grand Prix. Will Verstappen go on to his eleventh win of the season, or can someone surprise him?

For the fifth time in a row?

Max Verstappen enters the weekend as the clear favourite with Red Bull. The Dutchman has already triumphed in ten races this season and has looked invincible in the last three races in particular.

The reigning champion’s best performance came during the Belgian Grand Prix, when he fought his way from 14th on the grid to the lead in just twelve laps. He won the race almost eighteen seconds ahead of Sergio Pérez.

The Mexican has been well behind his teammate in recent races. Since the Silverstone race, he has scored 54 points. In the same period, Verstappen has scored 129 points. Pérez has often been the target of criticism from team boss Helmut Marko.

The Austrian team is enjoying a similarly dominant season to 2013. That’s when Sebastian Vettel became world champion and set two records. He holds the record for most wins in a row (9) and shares the record for most wins in a season (13) with Michael Schumacher.

Verstappen has a chance to break both records. Although the record for most wins in one year is skewed by the difference in the number of races.

Title hopes are gone

Ferrari’s performance has deteriorated significantly after the win in Austria. Charles Leclerc scored 31 points from four races, Carlos Sainz 42.

The Spanish driver has now been leapfrogged by George Russell in the Drivers’ Cup. The Monegasque still holds second place, with the same number of points as Pérez (201).

The Maranello team has no great hopes for the home race. Monza is a circuit where speed on the straights is the most important thing, and that is where the red monoblocs are lagging behind Red Bull.

Rather than fighting for the title, Ferrari must concentrate on the battle for second place. Mercedes is breathing down their neck, having narrowed the gap to the Italian team to just 30 points.

How will Mercedes fare?

The German team has been on the podium twelve times this year, but victory still eludes them. Although George Russell is the better driver in the Drivers’ Cup, it was Lewis Hamilton who fought for the win more often.

He was on course to win the British Grand Prix at home and had a long battle for first place at Zandvoort in the Netherlands. In both cases, the end of the race was affected by the safety car and victory eluded the seven-time world champion.

Hamilton still believes he will triumph in at least one race before the end of the season. But it is unlikely to be at Monza. Mercedes are even worse than Ferrari on the straights, so their realistic target will be a podium.

Who has the chance to surprise?

The last two Italian Grands Prix have produced an unexpected winner, in 2020 it was Pierre Gasly in an AlphaTauri, a year later Daniel Ricciardo in a McLaren monoposto.

This year, the dark horse could be Alpine. Their car is lightning fast on the straights and podiums are certainly not unrealistic for them. The team from Enstone is still waiting for a podium this year, with a best finish of fifth.

Williams will be looking for points. The last team in the championship has scored four points so far, all of them scored by Alex Albon. Just like Alpine, the British team has a monocoque that works well on the straights.

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