Bagnaia is within reach of defending his MotoGP title! How does the math play out for the reigning World Champion with two weekends left in the season?

This Sunday we can already see the name of this year’s MotoGP champion in the Qatar desert! Only 14 points separate the World Championship leader Francesco “Pecco” Bagnaia, who will try to repeat his overall success last year, and Jorge Martín, who is in the form of his life. With only 37 points up for grabs after Qatar, Bagnaia holds a mathematical chance of successfully defending his World Championship seat. What does he have to do to do that and what must he hope for?

Bagnaia vs. Martín – what has happened so far?

This year’s MotoGP season has been dominated by Ducati machines. The Italian factory’s riders have brought wins in 15 of the 18 grand prix races they have contested so far to its headquarters in Bologna, Italy. Despite losing to Honda in the USA and to Aprilia in the UK and Catalunya, at least one Ducati rider has stood on the podium in these races too.

Most of these triumphs, namely 13, were taken by the trio of Pecco Bagnaia, Jorge Martín and Marco Bezzecchi. No wonder, then, that until the last grand prix in Malaysia, this trio had kept their hopes alive of winning this year’s world title. With Bezzecchi officially out of contention, the only question left is: Bagnaia or Martín?

The Italian, with the number 1 on his bonnet, is leading the standings with a 14-point lead over the encroaching Spaniard, who is enjoying a phenomenal second half of the season. He has collected 8 wins from the last 13 races, including three doubles (sprint and main race wins in one weekend).

Bagnaia, on the other hand, has won only Sunday’s race in Indonesia since his horrific crash in Catalonia. In that time, his comfortable 65-point lead has shrunk to the aforementioned 14, thanks largely to an equally phenomenal consistency underlined by nine podium finishes.

What are the chances now for Bagnaiu?

If Bagnaia wants to celebrate a second consecutive MotoGP world title, he needs to finish the Qatar Grand Prix with a 37-point margin over Martino. That way, even if the Pramac rider gets a double at Valencia and Bagnaia doesn’t score, the same number of points would favour the 26-year-old Turin native as he would have more first places from Sunday’s races to his name.

In other words, Bagnaia needs to record a total of 23 points on Martín this weekend. Since 12 points are awarded for winning the sprint, Bagnaia will get his first wildcard after the sprint is over. And that’s only if Martín doesn’t cut three points or more from his lead. This means that if, for example, Martín takes the sprint lead and Bagnaia finishes right behind him, nothing will be decided this Sunday.

So for Bagnaia to still be able to be crowned under the spotlight, it is essential that his lead is 12 points after the sprint. In that case, if Martín does not score in the main race and Bagnaia dominates it, he would receive 25 points and the Italian would definitely become the MotoGP World Champion for 2023.

With all the possible permutations for Sunday depending on the results of the sprint race, we will be wiser after Saturday’s programme. However, it is clear that Bagnaia would definitely prefer his title to be decided in Qatar. He must therefore hope to pull off an excellent grand prix himself, while Martín picks a weak moment at the least opportune moment for him.

Source: MotoGP