Australian Open black horses: one in love, one returning, two under neutral flag

Comment: Another tennis season is about to start, traditionally in New Zealand and Australia, culminating in the first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open. And the key question for the first Grand Slam of the year is whether anyone can break the dominance of Serbia’s Novak Djokovic.

Who are the dark horses of the Australian Open? Russian tennis player Daniil Medvedev rounds out the top four favourites and I think that the tips for his victory do not correspond to realistic chances. Daniil has a lot of experience with Grand Slams and I certainly don’t trust him less than, say, Jannik Sinner. In 2021 and 2022 Russian Medvedev dropped out playing under a neutral flag only in the final, and for example from the US Open he has a final win from this year and even a grand slam title from 2021.

Daniil has been performing pretty consistently, except on clay, and he can prepare well for tournaments like the Australian Open, plus the surface will play into his hands. Experience, age, past results all give him hope here, and Medvedev is hugely motivated given that he has already failed twice in the final here.

For Spain’s Rafael Nadal, a lot depends on what form he comes to the Australian Open in and how long he can stay fit. We all know that Nadal hasn’t played a professional heated match in a very long time and therefore we can’t have any exaggerated expectations. The Spaniard’s first problem is the draw, which can be very unpleasant. because “Rafa” is not listed as a seeded player, but only has a Protect Ranking, so the lottery ticket can expose him to absolutely anyone.

If he gets someone strong in the first rounds, he won’t have time to play with weaker opponents and will probably have big problems. Let’s wait for Nadal to play the first rounds and then we’ll see what kind of shape he’s really in. However, if he looks healthy, doesn’t make a high number of unforced errors and shows that he has what it takes, he can win the entire first Grand Slam of the season.

You may argue that the name of Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas doesn’t really fit on the list of “black horses” and you are right in that last season was very below average from the Greek. Ever since he has been dating the beautiful twenty-five year old Spanish tennis player Paula Bados (born in New York), it seems to everyone that he hasn’t focused much on tennis and has put it on the back burner, beyond his personal life, putting love before sport.

But I think he is also not happy with the performances he is putting in and the new season could be the right push for him. Still, Stefanos is defending his final here from last year and is still one of the best tennis players in the world, when he wants to play what he can actually play.

Another factor is his one-handed backhand, which almost nobody practices now and is a very uncomfortable shot for the opponent. The Greek played really dominant at the Australian Open last time and if it wasn’t for Novak Djokovic, he would have definitely dominated the tournament. Of course, Djokovic is starting here this year as well and is rightfully the biggest favourite.

The other surprise of the tournament could be without a doubt Russian Andrey Rublev, who is one of the best tennis players in the world. Although he has been having some lapses in his game, he is very well prepared for the big events. I don’t think that Rublev is as good a candidate for the title as the names that have been mentioned before him, because it seems to me that his game is simply not up to the quality of a Grand Slam winner, but at the very least I would believe that he will reach the quarter-finals.

The Russian has reached the top eight at Grand Slams nine times and it’s such a tradition for him. Rublev improved a lot last year and I think he finally has a chance to break his quarterfinal curse. Is he up for the title? I don’t know, but if he has playable opponents, he’s easily in the semifinals.

Another player who is likely to go far in Australia this year is American star Ben Shelton. He started to sail through the rankings last year and this year, having already achieved a huge success in Melbourne in the form of a quarter-final. As the year progressed, he made himself more and more known and confirmed his form as a classic American at home on the concrete. The US Open brought Ben to the semi-finals, where he was stopped – understandably by none other than Novak Djokovic.

I have high expectations for Shelton this year and believe he will kick things off right from the edge of the season in Australia. His cannon serve and aggressive game is definitely an advantage with the opposition. As long as he doesn’t make any mistakes and stays focused, he’s going to have another great result in his career. Another advantage for Ben is that unlike last year, he will be seeded and therefore will have “easier opponents” in the first round.

Source: US Open, Australian Open