ATP 2024: Will we see a new Grand Slam champion?

The tennis season has been over for a few weeks this year and a few days before the start of 2024, it is fair to say that not much has changed, at least in terms of Grand Slam tournaments. The up-and-coming generation on the big stages has “sharpened up” again, three majors were won by the ageless Novak Djokovic, one tournament championship was snatched from him in the Wimbledon final by Carlos Alcaraz, and in the other three the Serbian champion was already infallible. So who can stop Novak Djokovic in 2024 and which players can be expected to make the biggest performance progression?

At least one member of the so-called Big Three (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic) has won at least one Grand Slam regularly since 2003. Roger Federer, who dominated the famous Wimbledon that year, started this era of absolute sporting dominance. Since that glorious moment until the end of this year, only a few players have managed to win a Grand Slam title.

The Argentinian Del Potro won the US Open, the Croatian Cilic, the Austrian Thiem and the Russian Medvedev have all won the same tournament. It was Alcaraz who won the title at Wimbledon and also at the US Open, the record holders outside the three legends mentioned above are the Swiss Wawrinka, who won the US Open, Roland Garros and Australian Open titles, with three Grand Slam titles to go along with the Scotsman Murray.

If we also consider the year 2003 after Wimbledon, we can of course include the American Roddick in this group, Gaudio won the French Open in 2004, and Safin won in Melbourne in 2004. However, all this is ancient history, the dominance of the big three has been absolutely brutal for the last two decades and it doesn’t look like anything will change next year.

So it begs the basic question. Will Djokovic, and the returning Nadal, be able to extend the Grand Slam dominance for another year, or will one of the well-known youngsters take over the tennis scepter for good? The 2024 season will kick off in just a few days with the traditional “Australian swing”, culminating in the Australian Open. It’s hard to imagine that anyone could stop the ten-time Serbian winner in Melbourne, especially since he has dominated three of the four Grand Slams this year and lost the fourth in a five-set final.

Djokovic still rules the tennis world with a firm and iron hand. Although he will be thirty-seven next year, he looks like he is not getting any older and will remain determined to prove once and for all that he is the best player ever to hold a tennis racket. Let’s prepare for him to continue to be a favorite in every tournament he enters. Ahead of the Australian Open, all tennis fans have their eyes on him.

Many experts believe that Spanish sensation Alcaraz is destined to inherit Djokovic’s tennis kingdom. Although the star from Murcia is only 20 years old, he has two Grand Slam titles to his name. After dominating the “weaker” US Open and putting the idea of a title from a tournament where he didn’t have to face Djokovic in particular into many people’s heads and had a slightly easier path, he shut those people’s mouths with his Wimbledon title.

However, the new season will be all the more difficult for the Spaniard, the highest demands are already placed on him and a Grand Slam title should be something of a given from his racket. Next season it is he who should give Djokovic a run for his money. He has beaten the Serb three times this year and poses a big threat to him in the coming year.

It’s just that, as much as Alcaraz is a threat to Djokovic, there are more players who are a threat to Alcaraz. Medvedev knocked him out in four sets at the US Open, Zverev again at the French Open last year, and let’s not forget the tenacious Sinner, who played an epic five-set duel with Alcaraz at last year’s US Open. Alcaraz is the hot favourite to win one of the Grand Slams next year, but there are many more threats lurking in the tournament pool than the Serb.

Until the third time, all the best. This line is certainly one that Norwegian Ruud can replay in his head. The Oslo tennis prodigy has reached two Grand Slam finals in his career, one of which he lost to Djokovic, the other to Nadal, both on the Paris clay at Roland Garros. Although Casper’s season this year has been weaker, he is still a French Open finalist who had lost three sets until his last match in the tournament. It looks like he can improve his performances considerably in Paris and if he is lucky with his lot and manages to avoid Djokovic or Nadal, he could finally dominate the famous French Open for the third time in a row.

Let’s never forget Medvedev either. The Russian tennis ace knows very well how to win a grand slam, especially on a hard surface. Just look at his triumphant run through New York in 2021. He played two consecutive Australian Open finals – in 2021 and 2022. This year at the US Open he reached the final again, playing the semi-finals of Wimbledon and the Masters tournament to boot. At the US Open in particular, he knocked out the favoured Alcaraz quite easily and will be a big threat to the Spaniard in particular. Medvedev is expected to have a big run in Melbourne. The Russian can always tune his form for the opening Grand Slam of the season, and except for this year’s quirk with Korda, Medvedev has always been in the final the previous years.

Nadal has been drawing huge attention to himself in recent weeks. The Spanish tennis megastar has been supplying social media with daily posts from his training sessions. Italian tennis, on the other hand, focuses its attention on a single name. That name is Sinner. The Italian has ended 2023 in style. He played in the final of the Tournament of Champions in his home city of Turin, then made a significant contribution to his country’s first Davis Cup title in forty-seven years and ended the year in the top five for the first time. However, if we talk about Grand Slams, he is still waiting for his first major success.

In Melbourne, he lost to Tsitsipas in the eighth round, at the French Open he was sensationally knocked out in the second round by Altmaier, and at the US Open he also reached the eighth round on Zverev’s racket. The only drop of hope was Wimbledon, where Sinner played in the Grand Slam semi-finals for the first time in his career, but Djokovic gave him no chance at all. Optically, the result from the All England Club looks great for Sinner, but the opposite is true.

Looking closely at his draw, even a tennis layman can see that Sinner was extremely lucky with his opponent. Halys third round, Grand Slam eighth round with Galan (on grass to boot), quarterfinals with Safiullin. Such a draw at Wimbledon is rather a complete anomaly and can hardly be repeated regularly. Sinner doesn’t seem to be winning grand slams yet. His mentality in three-set matches is lame. Tsitsipas or Zverev seem to be much more experienced at the big four tournaments.

Tip: Tsitsipas to dominate Australian Open

It’s hard to find a favourite other than ten-time winner Djokovic. Rod Laver Arena is his living room and he is the number one favourite next year as well. I see other players here who may have fallen off the pace in 2023, but the following season could be vastly different from their racquets.

There is a returning Nadal, however for me his title is more wishful thinking combined with the incredible comeback of Federer in 2017, which Nadal is virtually unknowingly copying and hoping for something similar. However, the bookies are forgetting one name – Tsitsipas. The Greek tennis player will be defending last year’s final in Australia. Anyone who watched him during this year’s tournament knows that his tennis was completely uncompromising and if anyone other than Djokovic was in the final, he would probably be celebrating his first Grand Slam title.

Tip: Ruud will dominate the French Open

In terms of my Roland Garros clay court tip, I’ll follow up by saying that the biggest favourite is obviously Alcaraz, with Djokovic right behind him. Let’s not forget Nadal either, he managed to win an incredible 14 titles in Paris. And look out, Ruud is a player who has a lot of potential. The Norwegian is at home on clay and has made two finals in his last two appearances at Roland Garros.

Even though he hasn’t started this year in a great way, he has been in the final of a clay grand slam again and given a good constellation of the tournament’s pavilion, the Norwegian could surprise, he is still the best clay player on the circuit after Alcaraz or Djokovic and Nadal. After all, you don’t get to two French Open finals by accident, and two years in a row.

Tip: Berrettini dominates Wimbledon

Just like in Australia, it’s hard to favour anyone other than Djokovic or defending champion Alcaraz at Wimbledon. However, the picks for them to win are from a pile of easy ones and I personally like deeper analysis primarily on the odds-on underdogs. How about mentioning Berrettini? A serve of over 200 km/h is still a big advantage on grass and there could be a real chance for the 2021 Wimbledon finalist this year.

The Italian’s record on grass is downright outstanding, he has won four titles on the green grass and was in that Wimbledon final when he lost in four sets to Djokovic. Berrettini has been through several injuries this year, on the other hand he is still young and will attack his best form next year. Wimbledon is the place where Berrettini can record the success of a lifetime.

Tip: Rune will dominate the US Open

The last Grand Slam of the season is very hard to predict every year and historically a lot of pre-tournament outsiders have lifted their opening Grand Slam laurels here. Whether it was Thiem, Wawrinka, Del Potro or Cilic. And what about 2024? How about Rune. We already know he has more potential than he’s shown in recent months. He’s still only 20 and already being talked about as someone who can dominate tennis in the future alongside Sinner or Alcaraz.

Rune has played two Grand Slam quarterfinals this year and was a step away from reaching the last eight in Melbourne as well. There, however, he unluckily lost a fifth set supertiebreak to Rublev. Next year Rune will “bite a lot” and the US Open is the tournament where this Danish star can shine the most.

The above prediction is very bold. Djokovic can be expected to win at least one Grand Slam next season, his hunger for success is becoming unbreakable as he gets older. On the other hand, the ball is round and many things can happen, specially in a tournament where it is necessary to win seven matches in three sets.

Source: ATP