The Champions League semi-finals are here! Which teams have a better chance of advancing to the top eight in Europe?

Football’s best club competition is back, and tomorrow the shrill jingle will once again ring through stadiums and your living rooms. Which teams that made it through to the eighth round have a better chance of progressing to the quarter-finals?

AC Milan – Tottenham

Chances of progression 40% – 60%

Both teams secured their qualification to the eighth round only in the last group match. Tottenham have also moved up to the top of the group and thus have the advantage of a home rematch. AC Milan are not doing well at the moment, winning one of their last eight games, drawing twice and losing six times.

Tottenham are slightly better off, with a 3-0-2 record from their last five games, but Spurs may be a little hurt by the weekend’s 1:4 drubbing by Leicester. Still, Tottenham is the favourite and should be able to cope with the Milan side.

PSG – Bayern

Chances of advancing 49% – 51%

The most anticipated and tense duel. Two giants with the goal of winning the whole competition will meet in the eighth round. The odds are absolutely even, with PSG relying on stars Messi, Neymar and Mbappé, and Bayern relying on a team approach.

We’ve added an extra one percent to Munich because of the injuries to Messi and Mbappé, with their start in the eighth-finals in jeopardy. And also because of PSG’s crazy form at the moment, where nothing is working, the team is disjointed, and they have lost twice in a row.

Club Brugge – Benfica

Chances of qualification 35 % – 65 %

On paper, probably the least attractive duel of the whole eight-finals. However, football-wise it could be a very interesting spectacle. Brugge performed very well in the group and left Atlético Madrid and Bayern Leverkusen behind, while Benfica finished first in the group ahead of PSG.

Two former Slavs (Bah, Musa) will also be in action and Benfica are the clear favourites. The Portuguese league leader is very comfortable and has won 4 of the last 5 games, while Brugge are struggling. They played 9 games after the WC break, of which they won one, lost twice and drew six times.

Dortmund – Chelsea

Chances of promotion 49 % – 51 %

On paper, Chelsea clearly have the upper hand, owner Todd Boehly has already pumped €600 million into the squad this season. But paper strength is not being played on, Chelsea are not doing well on the pitch and the new signings have not yet played like they should.

Back in the autumn, one could say that Dortmund are not in top form either, but after the World Cup break, BVB are running like clockwork. They have 6 wins in a row and a storming home crowd, where for the first time in LM the capacity rises from 60 to 80 thousand spectators.

Frankfurt – Naples

Chances of progression 40% – 60%

The big sensation of the basic groups. Napoli finished in first place ahead of Liverpool, who they blasted 4-1 at home. They played amazing football all autumn, led Serie A and carried their form into the spring. They have won their last four games by 10-1 and lead the Italian league by 16 points.

Frankfurt, on the other hand, can play in the cups. It won the Europa League last season, and managed to advance in a tough group with Tottenham, Sporting Lisbon and Marseille. They are fifth in the Bundesliga and Napoli should be promoted.

Liverpool – Real Madrid

Chances of progression 45 % – 55 %

A repeat of last year’s final, only neither team is in ideal form. Liverpool are in a huge crisis, they have won only three games out of nine since the World Cup break, the game they are playing is very poor.

Real Madrid are also not at their best, they have picked up a loss in the league, but it is more of a short lapse in form, not a deeper slump like in Liverpool’s case. In addition, Los Blancos fixed their taste by winning the Club World Cup title. A rematch at the Santiago Bernabéu, where Real magically turned games last year, is also a big advantage.

Inter – Porto

Chances of advancing 55 % – 45 %

An Italian-Portuguese clash that has no clear favourite. Inter managed to knock out Barcelona in the group and are second in Serie A, but the performances are not that convincing.

Porto can surprise from time to time in the Champions League, in the 2020/21 season they knocked out Juventus in the eighth round with Cristiano Ronaldo. The Portuguese were also in the quarter-finals in the 2018/19 season. Porto are also in great form, not having lost since October and pulling off a run of nine wins in a row.

RB Leipzig – Manchester City

Chances of advancing 20 % – 80 %

Probably the most ambiguous duel. Leipzig have their quality, but Manchester City are much stronger and extremely eager to finally win the Champions League trophy. To add to that, they have brought in the killer Erling Haaland, who is scoring goals like a treadmill.

The two teams met in the Champions League last year in the group stage, with the Citizens winning the first leg 6-3, and the German side winning the return leg 2-1.

Source: UEFA